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Last update:7th November 2006 Quick links:
Useful websites:ONS population change in SW local authorities ONS population density in the SW |
PopulationWhat's new on this page...
A healthy environment is critical for everyone living, working and visiting the South West. Every community is affected by environmental quality and people feel strongly about the quality of our cities, towns and villages in which they live. More information about the region's population and other related issues (such as our ageing population) are available in the State of the South West 2006 update. South West populationThe Mid-2005 Population Estimates were published by the Office for National Statistics on the 24th August 2006. In mid-2005, the South West's population stood at 5,067,800 people, the 4th higest of the English regions. The region's population accounted for around 10% of the English total (50,431,700). The lowest population in mid-2005 was found in the North East (2,558,000), followed by the East Midlands (4,306,300) and Yokshire & the Humber (5,063,900). The highest population in England was found in the South East (8,164,200) (ONS, 2006) Total population in the English regions mid-2005
Source: ONS (2006) Population growthBetween 1971 and 2005, the South West's population increased by 23% (from 4,112,000 to 5,067,800 people). The population in the South West reached 5,067,800 by mid-2005, an increase of 29,600 people (6%) since mid-2004 when the population was 5,038,200. Full details of population change between 2004 and 2005 in all South West local authority areas is available from the ONS Population projections reveal that the South West's population could grow to 5,823,000 by 2028. With a potential increase of almost 16%, the South West could have the 2nd highest projected increase of all the English regions, just behind the East. During this time, the South West will also have the highest percentage of people over 65 moving to the region with almost 26% compared to the national average of 22% (ONS, 2005). Dwellings & population densityThere were over 2.2 million dwellings in the South West in 2004, an increase of almost 14% or 268,000 new homes on 1991. This was above the English average of 10% and the highest recorded in any of the English regions (ODPM, 2005). The number of households in the region are expected to increase from just over 2.2 million in 2006 to almost 2.75 million in 2026. The average household size is also expected to decline by almost 9%, from 2.25 in 2006 to 2.05 by 2026 (ODPM, 2005) The South West is the least densely populated of the English regions with just 2.07 people per hectare (compared to an English average of 3.77). This low population density and the high percentage of people living in rural areas make the South West the most ‘rural’ of the England regions although densities vary considerably across the region. Population density in South West districts
Source: ONS, 2005 Between 1994 and 2004 the density of dwellings in the region increased by 56%, from 25 to 39 per hectare, with the majority of this increase occurring between 2001 and 2004. This trend is very similar to the national picture. More people live in rural areas in the South West than in any other English region (about 54%). The 31 rural districts have all seen a higher rate of population growth than the 14 urban districts in the region, with almost an 18% increase between 1983 and 2003. This was more than double the 8% increase in urban districts. Around 64% of the South West’s population live in urban settlements, the lowest percentage of any English region and below the English average of 82%. More people live in villages, hamlets or isolated dwellings in the region than the English average, 17% compared to 8% respectively. With almost 4%, the region also has a higher percentage of people living in remote locations than the English average of just over 1%. An ageing populationThe South West has the oldest population structure of all the regions in England; 38% were aged 50 or over in 2004. Official projections suggest that the number of residents aged over 50 will rise by over 300,000 over the ten years, raising their share of the total population to 41%. A changing population profile will have important implications for the allocation of public funds to different services. In particular, an increasing older population may be expected to increase demand for a range of health and welfare-related services. Population ageing is likely to increase the number of single person households and so increase the demand for housing. Despite one person households increasing both overall and as a proportion, just over one-third of new homes have one or two bedrooms. Furthermore there is often little incentive for older people to ‘trade down’ to smaller dwellings once their children leave. These trends have important implications for the sustainable use of the region’s development land. Accessing essential services can become more difficult as a person ages particularly if they live in a rural area, live alone, do not have access to a car or area affected by ill health. The 2001 Census showed that older people, particularly those aged 75 and over were least likely to have access to a car (see chart). Local and regional partners will therefore need to work innovatively to deliver welfare services to an immobile and dispersed older population, particularly in rural areas in order to combat social exclusion. More detail about the region's ageing population is available from the State of the South West 2006 update. A more local perspectiveThe fastest population growth in the South West has been seen in predominantly rural areas. North Dorset, Torridge, Restormel, West Wiltshire and Exeter ranked amongst the fastest growing 10% of local authority areas in England between 1994 and 2004. Plymouth was the only area in the South West to decline in population over this period (ONS, 2005). Projected population growth rates for 2004 to 2014 place Restormel, Taunton Deane, Torridge, West Wiltshire and North Cornwall in the fastest growing 10% of local authorities in England. The highest population densities can be found in the major urban areas of the region, such as Bournemouth (35.4 people per hectare), Bristol City (34.7 people per hectare) and Plymouth (30.2 people per hectare). The lowest densities are in the predominantly rural districts of West Devon (0.4 people per hectare), West Somerset (0.5 people per hectare) and Torridge (0.6 people per hectare) (ONS, 2005). There are 8 principle urban areas in the South West, which are Bristol, Bournemouth & Poole, Plymouth, Swindon, Gloucester, Torbay, Cheltenham and Exeter. These areas include more than a third of the region’s population. Bristol Urban Area has a population of more than half a million people and is the 9th largest urban area by population in England & Wales. Local profiles661 local profiles have now been mapped in the South West. Profiles contain a range of information about the people who live in an area, and about the area itself. Profiles may be created for all kinds of sites; urban areas such as towns and cities, political areas such as wards, districts and counties, and other sites of interest such as river catchments, estuaries, National Parks and AONBs. The purpose of the Profiles is to supply information on a wide range of subjects, including population. The South West Intelligence Database (SWID) contains a detailed breakdown of the South West census results. Second homesFive of the country’s top 10 districts with the highest proportion of second / holiday homes are in the South West, the highest being in the Isles of Scilly with 24% of all properties being second homes. This is followed by South Hams with 12.9% (the third highest in the country) and Penwith 9.5% (the fifth highest). National perspectiveIn mid-2005 the UK was home to 60.2 million people, of which 50.4 million lived in England. The average age was 38.8 years, an increase on 1971 when it was 34.1 years. In mid-2005 approximately one in five people in the UK were aged under 16 and one in six people were aged 65 or over (ONS, 2006). The UK has a growing population. It grew by 375,100 people in the year to mid-2005 (0.6 per cent). The UK population increased by 7.7 per cent since 1971, from 55.9 million. Growth has been faster in more recent years. Between mid-1991 and mid-2004 the population grew by an annual rate of 0.3 per cent and the average growth per year since mid-2001 has been 0.5 per cent (ONS, 2006). Projected population trends between 2004 and 2028 show that the East and South West will have the highest rates of growth, both by 16%, whilst the North East is expected to decline by 2% (ONS, 2005). Over 1.9 million dwellings were built in England between 1991 and 2004, an increase of almost 10% between 1991 and 2004. The highest rates of new dwellings built was in the South West, followed by the East Midlands and East, both with 17% of the national total (an increase of 209,000 and 268,000 respectively). The lowest rates were in the North East, where 54,000 new dwellings were built, 5% of the national total (ODPM, 2005). The number of households in England is predicted to increase from almost 21.5 million in 2006 to just under 26 million by 2026. Average household size is also expected to decline by 9%, from 2.31 to 2.10 in 2026 (ODPM, 2005). European & worldwide perspectiveEurope is one of the most urbanised continents, with around 75% of the total population living on just 10% of the land area. The total population in Europe in 2005 was estimated to be around 724.7 million, a decrease of just over 3.2 million since 2000. It is projected that the population will continue to decline to 685 million by 2030 (United Nations, 2006). Population density varies greatly across Europe. The lowest population density in 2003 was found in Iceland, with just 3 people per km2, in complete contrast to Monaco with 17,356 people per km2 (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2004). The world's population stood at almost 6.5 billion in 2005, an increase of 380 million since 2000 or 76 million every year, and is set to increase by 40% by 2050. Nearly 99% of all population increase takes place in poor countries, while population size is static or declining in the more developed nations. It is thought that world population will reach 9.3 billion by mid-century. Around 48% of the total population lived in urban areas in 2003 (United Nations, 2005). Urban livingThe United Nations predict, in their report World Urbanization Prospects: 2003 edition, that the world's urban population is continuing to gow faster than the total population of the world. About 3 billion people (48% of the world's population) lived in urban settlements in 2003 - a figure that is expected to exceed 50% by 2007 marking the first time in history that the world will have more urban residents than rural. By 2030, it is anticipated that the urban population will have swelled to 5 billion (61%). This marks an average annual population increase of 1.8%, nearly double the rate expected for the total population of the world (almost 1%) The majority of all urban dwellers is living in smaller urban settlements, while less than 5 per cent of the world population is living in mega-cities. Urban areas in less developed regions will experience the most rapid growth, averaging 2.3% per year during 2000-2030. With 35 million inhabitants in 2003, Tokyo is by far the most populous urban agglomeration. After Tokyo, the next largest urban agglomerations in the world are Mexico City (18.7), New York-Newark (18.3), São Paulo (17.9) and Mumbai (Bombay) (17.4). In 2015, Tokyo will still be the largest urban agglomeration with 36 million inhabitants, followed by Mumbai (Bombay) (22.6), Delhi (20.9), Mexico City (20.6) and São Paulo (20). In contrast, the urban population of the more developed regions is expected to increase very slowly, from 0.9 billion in 2003 to 1 billion in 2030 - 0.5% average annual growth rate between 2003 and 2030, compared to 1.5 per cent recorded during the previous half-century. The rural population is predicted to decline slightly from 3.3 billion in 2003 to 3.2 billion in 2030. |
