Local authority level UKCP09 key findings

The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) were published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) and the Met Office Hadley Centre.  The projections offer a series of possible future climates over the coming century based on 3 emissions scenarios (high, medium and low) and a range of probability levels, which reflect the uncertainties involved in climate science and future emissions.

This information can be extremely useful in helping organisations plan how they will adapt to a changing climate.  UKCP09 data is provided on a national, regional or river basin level at a 25km grid square level.  However, in order to assist local authorities in understanding the projected future climate for their local area, UKCIP and Climate SouthWest have made available key findings at a local authority level for the South West. 

Key findings and raw data have been made available for all South West Top Tier and District Authorities for the following types of projections:

• climate change projections -  climate projections expressed in terms of the difference between the absolute future climate and a baseline climatology (e.g.X% wetter or Y°C warmer).   For more detail go to  http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/535/690/

• projections of absolute future climate – climate projections expressed in terms of absolute values (e.g. Xmm precipitation per day or Y°C).  For more detail go to http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/2313/690/

For both types of key finding, the time periods used were the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s; for all three emissions scenarios (low, medium and high); and for all seasons in the time period (Winter, Spring, Summer, Autumn).  Various variables were used to produce the key findings, and these are summarised in table 1.

Climate SouthWest have collated the key findings for each South West top tier local authority, for the absolute future climate change variables only, in an easy-to-read spreadsheet.

Key findings for the climate change variables, and for both types of variable at a District Authority level, are available on request from Climate SouthWest.  Note, however, that these have not been collated into individual spreadsheets.

List of variables for which the council key findings have been produced.

Climate Change Variable	Absolute Future Climate Variable
Mean temperature (Tmean) (degrees C)	Mean temperature (Tmean) (degrees C)
Mean daily minimum temperature (Tmin) (degrees C)	Mean daily minimum temperature (Tmin) (degrees C)
Mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (degrees C)	Mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (degrees C)
Precipitation (Pmean) (%)	Precipitation (Pmean) (mm/day)
Total cloud (Clo) (%)	Total cloud (Clo) (%)
Relative humidity (Rhum) (%)	Relative humidity (Rhum) (%)
Temperature of the coldest night (ColdN) (degrees C)
Temperature of the coolest day (CoolD) (degrees C)
Temperature of the warmest day (WarmD) (degrees C)
Temperature of the warmest night (WarmN) (degrees C)

This section describes the method used by UKCIP to produce council level key findings for the councils in the South West of England. 

Owing to the fact that the 25km grid cells available in UKCP09 cannot be averaged to arrive at a single average value for an area, the grid cells that intersect a council boundary were used.  Because of this, the key findings produced for the councils, provide only the range of changes/climates that might be experienced in the future.  They do not provide a central estimate value of change within a council area, which is in contrast to the key findings that were produced for the English administrative regions and devolved administrations at launch – as they were based on aggregated area values.  A full list of the grid cells that are intersected by each council boundary is provided in table 2.

The following approach was taken in developing key findings for projected changes in climate, within the individual council boundaries:

1.  For each council boundary, find the UKCP09 grid cells that it intersects, as illustrated in figure 1.

2. For each variable, using each of the files per grid cell per council boundary, time period, emissions scenario, and season, find the minimum value at the 10% probability level, and the maximum value at the 90% probability level.

3. Use the minimum and maximum figures from step 2 to construct the key finding.

The key finding text uses the UKCP09 convention of describing changes at the 10% probability level to be very unlikely to be less than the value given, and at the 90% probability level of being very unlikely to be greater than the given value.

Below is an example of the intersection of Taunton Deane Borough Council with the UKCP09 climate model grid.  Here, grid cells 1618, 1619, 1620, and 1658, were used to develop the key findings.

Councils in the South West for which key findings have been produced, and the associated UKCP09 grid cell IDs, that fall within the boundary of each council.

 

Council	UKCP09 probabilistic projection grid cell IDs
Devon County Council	1578 1579 1615 1616 1617 1618 1619 1654 1655 1656 1657 1658 1693 1694 1695
Dorset County Council	1658 1659 1660 1661 1698 1699 1700 1701
Somerset County Council	1578 1579 1581 1582 1618 1619 1620 1621 1622 1658 1659 1660
Gloucestershire County Council	1466 1467 1504 1505 1506 1507 1543 1544 1545 1546
Cornwall Council	1690 1691 1692 1693 1694 1653 1654 1655 1615
Plymouth City Council	1693 1694
Torbay Council	1695
Poole Borough Council	1700
Bournemouth Borough Council	1700
South Gloucestershire Council	1543 1544 1582 1583
Bristol City Council	1582 1581 1542 1543
North Somerset Council	1581 1582 1543
Bath North East Somerset Council	1582 1583 1621 1622
Wiltshire Council	1544 1545 1583 1584 1546 1585 1621 1622 1623 1624 1660 1661 1662 1701
Swindon Borough Council	1546 1584 1585
Torridge District Council	1615 1616 1617 1654 1655
West Devon Borough Council	1616 1617 1654 1655 1656 1693 1694
South Hams District Council	1693 1694 1695
Teignbridge District Council	1655 1656 1657 1694 1695
Exeter City Council	1657
East Devon District Council	1657 1658
Mid Devon District Council	1617 1618 1619 1656 1657 1658
North Devon District Council	1578 1579 1617 1618
West Somerset District Council	1578 1579 1581 1618 1619 1620
Taunton Deane Borough Council	1618 1619 1620 1658
Sedgemoor District Council	1581 1582 1619 1620
South Somerset District Council	1619 1620 1621 1658 1659 1660
West Dorset District Council	1658 1659 1660 1698 1699
Mendip District Council	1581 1582 1620 1621 1658 1659 1660
North Dorset District Council	1660 1661 1699 1700
Purbeck District Council	1699 1700
East Dorset District Council	1661 1700 1701
Stroud District Council	1505 1506 1544 1545
Forest Of Dean District Council	1504 1505 1506 1466 1543 1544
Cotswold Borough Council	1507 1544 1545 1546 1506
Tewkesbury Borough Council	1467 1505 1506 1507 1545
Christchurch Borough Council	1700 1701
Weymouth Portland District Council	1698 1699
Gloucester Borough Council	1505 1506
Cheltenham Borough Council	1506

• Climate SouthWest

• The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09)